Crammer on $CAT, $FCX, $VALE, $MCD, $GOOG, $ED, $KMP.

Looks like sometimes we just ask for too much.

We want China to slow its economy just enough that no business is hurt, but we also want the country to have a sustainable growth rate. We claim we want a soft landing, but in reality we want no landing at all. You want Caterpillar ($CAT) to make $10 bucks a share? There can be no landing. You want Bucyrus to be a brilliant acquisition IMMEDIATELY? There can be no landing.

Same with commodities. We want inflation cut back in emerging markets but not so much that Freeport ($FCX) skips a beat, or Vale ($VALE) gets hurt. But if inflation isn't cut back these central banks are going to have to push even harder, so hard that things crash.

So we end up not owning any cyclicals and are drawn to McDonald's ($MCD) or Google ($GOOG) or Con Ed ($ED).

For now, that's the right call. The cyclicals can't work because every economy has to slow in a fashion they can't slow, the fashion of not hurting earnings, and every debt deal and bond bailout must occur simultaneously and work perfectly, and that, too, can't be done in an imperfect world.
Worse, the stocks were priced as if there would be no landing and that all debt and bailout deals are fait accompli. And they aren't.
So, what works is a portfolio of boring stocks with some secular themes -- gold, oil -- of short supply and that's about it.
Of course, optimism drives stocks up, so the moment you think that there is no hope, hope springs. But then it is dashed and bets made on the hope have to be sold at maximum hope, not minimal results, which is what you get.

Long way of saying do as little as possible, take pain if the story involves riding out overheated economies and debt deals, or just hide in Con Ed and Kinder Morgan ($KMP) and wait for things to become clearer and, well, less bad.