We are concerned about the long-term outlook, but remain cyclically constructive on risky assets.Two of our three reasons for a 2H rally – better second-half growth in developed economies andring-fencing sovereign stress in Europe – are under stress. We have always been concernedabout 2012. We are now considering whether the concerns we saw for 2012 are emerging earlierthan we had expected, though a recession is not our base case.
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