Friday, September 23, 2011

$EURUSD :  Posted an outside down day yesterday and the followed through to the downside today.  It is at the lowest level now since Jan, and the Jan low, which is the low for the year, near $1.2865, is the next big target, though of course the $1.30 level looms first of psychological import.  The implied volatility is near 17.5% currently.  Vol has increased as the euro has slid.  Even though the specs at the IMM are short euros, the relationship between vol and the spot action warns that a falling euro is still the pain trade for the larger market.   The $1.35-$1.36 area should offer important resistance now. -M.Chandler

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