Having traded for a while quite closely to our stop, our long EUR/$ recommendation has finally been stopped out for a theoretical loss of 4.2% including carry.
We recommended this idea on the back of two main assumptions: continued Dollar downside pressure and a gradual decline in the fiscal risk premium in the Eurozone. The latter has obviously been rising in recent months, but at the same time Dollar downside pressures also intensified through July and August as illustrated by very weak BBoP data in recent months. As a result, EUR/$ remained range bound for most of the summer. However, the recent sharp increase in risk aversion, much of this originating in Europe, and upward pressure on the USD across a wide range of currencies lately, has pushed the cross below our 1.35 closing stop.
We recommended this idea on the back of two main assumptions: continued Dollar downside pressure and a gradual decline in the fiscal risk premium in the Eurozone. The latter has obviously been rising in recent months, but at the same time Dollar downside pressures also intensified through July and August as illustrated by very weak BBoP data in recent months. As a result, EUR/$ remained range bound for most of the summer. However, the recent sharp increase in risk aversion, much of this originating in Europe, and upward pressure on the USD across a wide range of currencies lately, has pushed the cross below our 1.35 closing stop.
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