Saturday, September 17, 2011

($MACRO) Household debt dropped for the 12th consecutive quarter, according to second-quarter data released by the Federal Reserve on Friday that shows the continued drag from the bursting of the housing bubble.
Household debt declined by a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.6%, dragged lower by a 2.4% decline in mortgage debt as consumers took out fewer mortgages, paid off or had debts forgiven, the Federal Reserve reported in its voluminous flow-of-funds report. Consumer credit outside mortgages rose by 3.4%.

Cramer on $XLF, $BAC, $GS, $JPM, $WFC

These banks -- these banks -- I mean, it's incredible. They just lay on this market like a wet blanket.
At one point today, Bank of America (BAC) started ramping on this endless rumor that Countrywide will be filing for bankruptcy. When the rumor ran its course, the stock took a header.
Or Goldman Sachs (GS) -- there is a presumption these days that Goldman's just not going to have a good quarter. It's a presumption. Every time it lifts people sell it.
Or JPMorgan Chase (JPM) -- here's a company that keeps talking about how business is so strong, yet the stock is trading as if a big shortfall is coming. I'm looking for a dividend boost. I guess that's out of the question.
Or Wells Fargo (WFC) -- this bank has surprised to the upside several times now, and nobody seems to care.
For the longest time it's been tech and banks that have held back the market. Suddenly tech is out of the doghouse, right on schedule. The banks, however, are the reason the market is having such a hard time breaking out. They are just big enough in the S&P 500 to throw the index back from this level on any negative news out of Europe -- and it is hard to believe that, after four good days, the next 72 hours won't yield some more of that.
($SPX, $SPY) Things won't be any easier next week. We have an extremely important meeting of the Fed. Expectations for some form of quantitative easing are extremely high and we are likely to see a major move when if that news hits on Wednesday at 2:15 p.m. EDT.
Despite the big move this week, the market is still in the trading range that began after the breakdown in early August. We started the week near the bottom of the range and are now back near the top and running into technical overhead. The fact that we were quickly overbought didn't make much of a difference this week, but it does increase the risk of a sell-the-news reaction to the Fed next week.-R.Shark

Friday, September 16, 2011

($EURUSD, $SPX, $SPY) Weak $EURUSD a tell? Contrary to the usual pattern, the $EURUSD is down on the day despite the markets being higher.
($SPX, $SPY) I expect the market to hold on to its gains and maybe even rise further into the close, but come Monday, the downtrend is likely to resume.
($MACRO) Europe and the United States could face 10 years of slow growth and high unemployment if a global solution for the euro zone debt crisis is not implemented soon, former British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on Friday.
($MACRO) Stiglitz Says U.S., Europe Face Serious Double-Dip Risk.