The market moved up for the eighth straight day (up 8% in 8 days) following a better-than-expected ADP jobs number and some strong retail sales reports. While fundamental news like this has been the headline reason for the stunning 8% surge, the real driving force has been market players who simply weren't in position for such a big move. Many thought the big push into the end of the quarter would quickly reverse. When it didn't, the bears were caught in a painful trap. This market although it is at new highs actually, has characteristics of a bear market rally, since in a bull market the market goes up slowly with sudden reversals. The opposite happens in bear markets and also happens now. The market goes slowly down with sudden up moves from short covering. This happens because there is absolutely no retail money in this market, and the market is dominated by algorithmic trading.
I don't think there is anyone who could look at this market in a short-term time frame and not believe that we are due for some consolidation. The bulls aren't too worried about a rest as they are now convinced that the worst is over and it is clear sailing into earnings season. The bears have been flattened and seen all their fundamental arguments ignored again.
The big deal is today’s jobs report which must be a good one based on the buzz and front-running.
We still have earnings on the horizon and many institutional investors believe many reports will beat expectations.
No comments:
Post a Comment