Dispiriting day. Just awful. Today was a day where, as they used to say at the stadium where I sold ice cream, “You can’t tell the players without a scorecard.” And today, you needed the Euro-Panoply scoreboard to know who quit -- a fellow named Stark -- and why -- bond buying, and that’s all you needed to know.
We are in a real untenable situation where everyone except the people who actually make the decisions knows that the euro has to go. It’s not working anymore. It was a really good idea at the time.
Instead, this torture has to play out. Can you imagine how simple things would be if it hadn’t been for the euro? Who would have given these countries this credit? Who would have thought that Germany would have to bail out Italy? I mean, this is like World War I with secret alliances all over the place.
Doesn’t matter.
This is a worst-case scenario market, in that it is always, post-Lehman, trying to price in the worst case. Until we 1) price in the worst case and 2) get the worst case, we will not be able to handle the endless capitulation.
So, we wait until it gets oversold. We buy higher yielders, recession-resistant names, mlps, and utilities, and, if you want to, a cyclical or two or three that you know you will lose money on for now (including oils) into the weakness of next week.
Don’t get it? Don’t buy.
We are in a real untenable situation where everyone except the people who actually make the decisions knows that the euro has to go. It’s not working anymore. It was a really good idea at the time.
Instead, this torture has to play out. Can you imagine how simple things would be if it hadn’t been for the euro? Who would have given these countries this credit? Who would have thought that Germany would have to bail out Italy? I mean, this is like World War I with secret alliances all over the place.
Doesn’t matter.
This is a worst-case scenario market, in that it is always, post-Lehman, trying to price in the worst case. Until we 1) price in the worst case and 2) get the worst case, we will not be able to handle the endless capitulation.
So, we wait until it gets oversold. We buy higher yielders, recession-resistant names, mlps, and utilities, and, if you want to, a cyclical or two or three that you know you will lose money on for now (including oils) into the weakness of next week.
Don’t get it? Don’t buy.
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