The 200-dma comes in at 1.4015 (held on a close basis at the July lows), the primary uptrend from the June ’10 low stands at 1.3946 and the intraday low from 12th July is at 1.3837. Some consolidation around this region is possible, particularly as the market has already closed lower for five consecutive daily sessions. Risks do look skewed towards an eventual downside break from the recent range. A sustained downtrend, as opposed to a sustained uptrend, also seems more feasible.
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